That turned out to be conservative, as the Dow exceeded that mark in the winter of 2015 and hit 25,000 in the fall of 2017. Fast forward to 2010, when the Dow was at 10,000 and the nation was slogging through the Great Recession, indicators prompted my firm to project 20,000 by the end of 2020. Since I started in this business in 1981, the Dow has doubled five times, once every seven or eight years. Skeptics who regard Dow 50,000 by 2027 as pie in the sky need to wake up and smell the growth coffee they can drink when they have to eat this pie.Įven as the Dow has marched upward, these skeptics have deemed implausible projections that merely recognize average rates of ascent. Increments of the growth or decline of index members are divided by a fractional, 14-decimal-place constant, known as the Dow divisor, to determine the index’s levels of gain or loss. The Dow is a weighted index in which constituents’ growth or shrinkage are constantly quantified. market index, was designed to serve as a proxy for the broader market and, to some extent, the economy. Yet the same kinds of economic and market factors that have goosed rises in recent years-plus some new ones, including the post-pandemic recovery-will be at work. To some investors, this might seem unlikely. So, reaching 50,000 in six years, a 40% increase, is by no means a stretch. The DJIA (aka, the Dow) was hovering around 31,000 the last week of January-after tripling in 12 years. But when this happens, you really shouldn’t be astonished. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
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